ISRAELI NEWSPAPER: THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY WILL BE CRUSHED, NOT ISRAEL





A report on the website of the Israeli economic newspaper "Globus" revealed that the Egyptian economy will be completely crushed due to the continued Houthi attacks in Yemen on commercial ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea.

The Israeli economic website indicated that Suez Canal revenues contribute 2% to Egypt's gross domestic product and are a very important part of the country's economy, which is drowning in debt.

He explained that in Cairo, they fear that the series of attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea will increase the risk rating of the canal and cause ships to abandon it as a vital route between East and West.

The Hebrew website explained that although the Houthis in Yemen seek to harm Israel and its commercial ships, it is the Egyptian economy that will be crushed in the end.

Brigadier General Shmuel Elms, an Israeli military and strategic analyst in the Hebrew newspaper, said that the Houthi attacks, which intensified last Sunday, raise concern in the Israeli and global shipping sector in general.

He pointed out that the Israeli company "Zim" has already converted the ships' itinerary to a route around Africa to reach Israel, and the Danish giant Maersk has also taken a similar step with two ships chartered by XT from Haifa, and this trend is expected to continue for a long time.

The Israeli analyst added: “While the main concern in Israel is related to delays and increased cost of supply chains, in Egypt they are concerned about the consequences for the Suez Canal, because when a ship does not enter the Red Sea, this means a major loss for the canal.”

About 12% of global trade, 5% of crude oil, 8% of liquefied natural gas, and 10% of petroleum products move through the canal. It is the northern gateway to the entrance and exit to the Red Sea, where the Houthis are based. It is also considered an important source of income for Cairo and passes through it. On average 50 ships per day and represents 30% of the world's container traffic.

In the fiscal year 2022-2023, Egypt brought in a record amount of about $9.4 billion from the canal, after $8 billion in the previous year. At the same time, the recovery from Corona allowed Egypt, according to the World Bank, to end 2022 with growth of 6.6%.

During the first half of the last fiscal year, the Suez Canal’s income in Egypt’s GDP rose in the first half to about $2.91 billion, which represents a 75% jump at the annual level, and in the period between July, September and December, the Suez Canal accounted for about 2.91 billion dollars. % of Egyptian GDP.

He continued: “From an economic standpoint, the war in Gaza is added to the external shocks that Egypt has been exposed to in recent years against the backdrop of the Corona epidemic and the war in Ukraine, as the clear damage is focused on three of the main sources of foreign income for the country: energy, tourism, and the Suez Canal, and the canal was “An economic bright spot for Egypt in the fiscal year 2022-2023, and enhancing the attractiveness of the canal axis for global maritime traffic is linked, among other things, to an increase in oil and fuel prices.”

He continued: “Because of this increasing dependence on the Suez Canal, the Sisi administration is investing about 4% of the state’s total investments in it, as investments in the first half of last year grew by 25% to about 390 million dollars. However, Egypt is a country saturated with debt, While investments in the canal increased, Cairo applied last year to the International Monetary Fund for a loan worth $12 billion, but it did not meet the conditions, so the solution that was reached in October of last year was a loan worth $3 billion distributed over 46 months. ".



The volume of Egypt's debts to the IMF today is about $12 billion, which is the second highest number in the world, after it recently returned only $418 million. For comparison, Ukraine, which is facing a war on a historical scale on its part, owes the IMF about 8.7 million dollars. Billion dollar.

He added: “Therefore, not only Israel was surprised and financially harmed by the deadly attack launched by Hamas on October 7 and its consequences, but also Egypt, as Egypt was harmed by the decline in natural gas supplies from Israel, resulting from the closure of the Tamar platform for a month, and due to the limited amount of gas.” Natural Gas did not allow them to liquefy the gas, and load it into LNG tankers for export to all parts of the world, and it is true that since then the operation of the platform has been resumed, followed by the export of LNG from Egypt, which is crucial to its income, but Cairo has already missed about a month and a half. Of sales season.

He added: “Unfortunately for the Egyptians, who are acting as mediators between Israel and Hamas in order to achieve stability that will also help them export liquefied natural gas, the Houthis have launched a series of attacks in the Red Sea, the first of which was the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, a giant cargo ship in the Red Sea.” Then, in the northern Indian Ocean, an Iranian-made Shahad 136 suicide drone attacked the CMA CGM Symi container ship, owned by the Idan Ofer Shipping Company in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The third attack occurred not far from the attack site. The last, about 54 nautical miles off the coast of Somalia, in which two boats attempted to hijack the tanker Central Park - owned by the Zodiac company controlled by the Israeli company Eyal Ofer. According to the Pentagon, the attackers were Somalis, but after the ship was freed, two ballistic missiles were launched. From an area controlled by the Houthis in Yemen towards the American destroyer USS Mason and Central Park, the missiles landed in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, but the missile attack may clarify that the Houthis are behind the attack.”

He added: "The most powerful attack came last Sunday, when the Houthis, using Iranian-made missiles and drones, attacked a US Navy ship, the USS Carney, and three commercial ships."

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